Chinese TV makers reduce 4Q25 panel forecast by 9 percentage points on market concerns

As the TV panel market sees a strategic split, with Chinese TV makers cutting their 4Q25 demand forecast by 9 percentage points after a 3Q25 purchasing surge, price negotiation strategies and concerns over weakening finances and market demand are emerging as the critical factors shaping procurement. In this blog, Omdia explores how Chinese panel makers are pivoting from strong planned demand to forecast reductions as a negotiation tactic, while their South Korean counterparts shift from previously weaker purchasing to slightly increase their 4Q25 demand, as they address the intense competition with Chinese brands.

In 3Q25, Omdia observed differing panel purchasing plans and strategies between Chinese and South Korean TV makers. Chinese TV makers boosted their purchases, while South Korean TV makers showed weaker demand. In 4Q25, Chinese TV makers are projected to reduce their panel purchases by nine percentage points from their initial plans as part of price negotiation strategies and due to the financial pressure as well as concerns over a weakening demand outlook, including the possibility that TV sell-through during the upcoming Double 11 festival and Black Friday promotions may fall short of expectations. 

Meanwhile, South Korean TV makers have recently increased their purchasing plans for 4Q25 compared with the previous forecast anticipating higher TV set shipments in 4Q25. This adjustment comes as they respond to the intense competition from Chinese brands who are aggressively seeking to capture market shares from Samsung and LG Electronics.

Some TV makers, particularly Chinese ones aiming to increase their market share, may seek to pull forward certain purchases in 4Q25 and early 2026 to seize market opportunities driven by sports events like the Winter Olympics in February 2026 and the FIFA World Cup in June–July 2025 and avoid any risk of supply chain disruption that could arise from labor shortage before and after the Lunar New Year holidays in 2026, which span from February 16 (Lunar New Year’s Eve) through March 3 (Lantern Festival).  Before refilling more panels, TV makers want to negotiate lower panel prices. Across the board, TV makers are seeking lower panel prices to offset losses in their TV set sales business due to their conservative shipment plans.

To facilitate this, panel makers must offer price concessions, including marketing development funds (MDFs), to select strategic TV makers. This would allow TV makers to run promotions in 4Q25 and help ease their financial burden motivating them to drive traffic in 1Q26.  At the same time, panel makers must remain flexible in adjusting their fab utilization to maintain pricing leverage and consider reshuffling their product mix to optimize value and production efficiency.

Chinese TV makers increased 3Q25 Panel Purchases Ahead of Lower 4Q25Panel Demand

In 3Q25, the purchasing volumes of Chinese TV makers increased by 35% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 13% year-over-year (YoY) as shown in Figure 1. Their purchases rose significantly compared with weaker demand in 2Q25. This plan also aimed to strengthen panel price negotiations, including MDFs, and support sales plans for the 4Q25 shopping seasons. Chinese TV makers’ 3Q25 buying results were about eight percentage points higher than initially planned.

However, Chinese TV makers’ purchasing plans are forecast to decline by 12% QoQ and 3% YoY in 4Q25. Following the Golden Week holidays in China in October, Chinese TV makers began cutting their 4Q25 panel purchasing plans. Preparation for the Double 11 festival in China concluded in the first half of October. Concerns exist that TV sell-through during Double 11 may fall short of expectations, as consumer demand has been pulled forward and Chinese TV brands are not able to offer low prices because of financial difficulties. Chinese consumers will expect TV prices during the Double 11 promotions to be similar to those seen in the June 18 festival, or they may not make purchases. This could severely pressure TV makers’ finances when the subsidy program is unavailable. 

The Chinese government’s “swap-old-for-new” subsidy program is set to end in 4Q25, raising concerns about weakening demand. Additionally, overseas demand forecasts remain uncertain or have not met targets set by some Chinese TV makers. As a result, Chinese TV makers have lowered their previously aggressive 4Q25 buying plans. This is also a purchasing tactic to negotiate lower panel prices with panel makers.

Figure 1: Top-tier Chinese TV makers’ panel purchases, 2021–25 (F), October 2025 update

South Korean TV makers recently increased purchasing plans for 4Q25 in response to strong competition from Chinese rivals

In 3Q25, South Korean TV makers’ purchasing volumes declined by 9% QoQ and 9% YoY, as shown in Figure 2, which was weaker than previously forecast. Lower-than-expected 3Q25 panel purchases were driven by intensified price competition from rival companies in China, resulting in financial losses.

In 4Q25, South Korean TV makers’ purchasing plans are forecast to increase by 7% QoQ and 5% YoY. Samsung and LG Electronics initially had weaker panel purchasing plans for 4Q25, but in recent months they increased shipment forecasts for 4Q25, raising panel buying volumes accordingly. This is also a purchasing tactic to negotiate lower panel prices with panel makers. While South Korean TV makers generally prioritize profit and inventory control, particularly for old models in 4Q25, they continue to request price concessions from panel makers so that buying plans can be adjusted if panel prices become competitive enough to increase shipments.    

Figure 2: Samsung’s and LG Electronics’ TV panel purchases, 2021–25 (F), October 2025 update