Foldable smartphones are moving into a pivotal 2026

This year has seen a wave of foldable launches, with vendors showcasing cutting-edge engineering that tackles long-standing concerns around bulk and weight. Samsung upgraded its Fold and expanded its Flip lineup, HONOR pushed lighter book-style models into wider distribution, and numerous other vendors added new models, further expanding consumer choice. Nearly every major Android vendor is now in the foldable race, experimenting with form factors, price points, and innovative engineering.

Even though the category is more crowded than ever, global shipments were flat in H1 2025 at 6.6 million units. China was the major exception, growing 32.8% year-on-year, predominantly driven by Huawei’s Mate and Pura X models. The second-biggest foldable market, the U.S., grew modestly by 7% in H1 2025, mainly by driven by Motorola’s Razr 2025 series.

Even though vendors are experiencing above-expected momentum with their recently launches, global foldable shipments are forecast to remain flat at 15.2 million units for the full year. However, 2026 is set to a turning point. Anticipated added competition combined with flip shaped decvices becoming more affordable is set to reegnite foldable growth. Canalys (now part of Omdia) forecasts foldable smartphone shipments to grow by a staggaring 51% YoY in 2026, also carrying momentum into 2027.

Yet, with foldables are set to remain a niche segment making up a low single digit percentage of the total market, the purpose does foldables serve within vendors business strategies and the path ahead have become key questions.

Foldables as a Test of Hardware Leadership and Innovation

Among the many smartphones focus areas of the past decade, foldables stand out because they offer something highly tangible consumers can see and feel. In a market where it has become harder for consumers to perceive major upgrades, the display is one of the highly noticeable last frontiers.

For most vendors, the core purpose of foldables has been to demonstrate technological leadership and R&D strength. Direct volume and profitability aspirations have been low, and vendors have rather strived for brand and marketing halo externality effects, helping to build:

• Brand differentiation in an increasingly uniform market
• Engineering credibility in advancing materials and form factors
• Positioning in the ultra-premium tier where margins are strongest

A growing number of tri-fold concepts already hint at where this frontier is extending next.

These points make foldables more than a niche experiment. They are a proving ground for whether hardware R&D can still deliver meaningful differentiation in an industry where the gravitational pull is shifting toward software, artificial intelligence, and services as the core revenue drivers.

For hardware teams, the stakes are existential: either foldables validate the continued value of engineering-led innovation, or smartphones risk becoming little more than standardized vessels for software ecosystems. Consequently, the scale and wider strategic relevance of foldable smartphones is moving up in the priority list.

Value Over Volume in Portfolio Strategy

Foldables remain a niche in shipment terms, making up between 1.0-1.5% of global volumes and only 5% of devices priced above $700. But assessing them only by volume misses the real impact. The foldable category punches far above its weight in revenue contribution and strategic value.

Samsung’s portfolio illustrates the point. One Galaxy Z Fold7 sold to list price (around $1899) generates the equivalent revenue of roughly 15 entry-level Galaxy A06 4Gs. In 2024, only 15% of Samsung’s smartphones sold worldwide were priced above $1,000 (Galaxy S and Z). However, these devices contributed a staggering 44% of shipment value.

Within that tier, foldables (Galaxy Z and W) contributed more than 20% of volume, helping lift ASPs and shift Samsung’s revenue mix away from the low-margin, hyper-competitive mass market. And this is not even mentioning the potential for a higher likelihood of upselling additional products, such as care plans.

Rethinking Foldables to Expand Adoption

Despite broader vendor participation and engineering improvements, foldables still face adoption hurdles. Addressing these will be key to drive the next wave of adoption, and many of these solutions are less about hardware breakthroughs more about triggering people’s imagination and aspirations, creating a stronger desire towards having a foldable. 

Foldables have captured global awareness. In a recent consumer study conducted by Canalys (now part of Omdia) across five global markets (N=5000) focused on cutting-edge smartphone tech, 96% of respondents showed some level of familiarity with foldable smartphones. However, almost 40% of respondents said that they were not interested in foldable smartphones, and over a third of respondents stated that they were interested but that it sits outside their budget or doesn’t meet their needs.

These findings highlight a few areas that must be addressed to drive the next wave of adoption.

1. Behaviour change needs to change. At the heart of the adoption challenge is friction. Foldables ask users to rethink how they interact with their phone: how they hold it, multitask, browse, type, or game. Even for a device in the ultra-premium tier, that’s a tough ask. This friction is precisely why it is challenging for foldables to be marketed, priced, or sold like a typical flagship smartphone. It is key to capture consumers imagination of what they can do with foldables as a separate category from standard bar smartphones.

The smartphone industry’s standard playbook of blanket awareness campaigns and aggressive trade-push incentives designed to drive sales volume does not work for foldables at this early stage. The market must be nurtured almost like a completely new product in its infancy. This might also mean that at the early stage the winning metrics are not on shipment volumes but more subtle metrics like retention rate, and qualitative feedback from users of foldables.

2. Price which often serve as a double-edged sword for foldables. In 2024, the ASP of fold format smartphones sold in 2024 was 289% higher than the average bar smartphone, and the ASP of the average flip format cost 123% more. The premiumization is key as a brand perception and revenue driver but also excludes a large part of the audience.

3. An enterprise angle is emerging. Foldables offer productivity benefits that are easier to justify in professional settings, where the larger screen supports multitasking, document editing, and video conferencing without the need to carry a separate tablet. Samsung, for instance, has demonstrated enterprise use cases by integrating its Galaxy Z Fold series with DeX, enabling users to connect to external monitors and run desktop-like workflows—appealing for mobile professionals who want one device that can handle both phone and PC-like tasks. Other vendors are also exploring partnerships with enterprise app providers to highlight foldables as tools for productivity, not just consumer novelty.

4. Besides awareness and pull factors, vendors might also need to re-think the barrier of letting users try before buying. For what is a major investment for many users, hands-on experience is critical. Effective and transparent retail stands are a key element to drive wider interaction. Additionally, brands like OPPO have experimented with “test period” programs offering money-back guarantees, lowering the barrier for hesitant buyers. Building trust - in the product, in the brand, and in the after-sales safety net - is essential.