The impact of COVID-19 on the global cinema business (as at 30/3/20)
Only a few days into a partial re-opening of cinema screens in some provinces (530 theatres at widest), on the 28th March Chinese authorities ordered all cinemas to shut once again as the risk of a second wave is feared. The admissions generated in the week the cinemas were open were low, with audiences seeming nervous about going back into social spaces. There were no new films on release during that period.
This comes on the heels of the Shanghai municipal government planning to open around 200 cinemas (about half) from Saturday 28th, the first re-openings in a Tier 1 city. The cinemas were to have strict measures in place for hygiene and distancing. This will not now happen and no date has been given for cinemas to begin business again.
Warner Media is establishing a fund worth $100m for production staff across the group that have not been working as film and TV shoots have been shut down. The number of people affected by this crisis according to representative union IATSE was 120,000 as of two weeks ago. The Warner fund joins the action taken by Netflix (see previous updates) for the same amount. The Entertainment Industry Foundation (a charitable organisation) in the US has also launched a fund to help those most affected.
In the UK, the BFI and The Film and TV Charity have established an emergency fund for people in the creative community that have been forced to stop working. The fund was set up with a £1m donation from Netflix, which is a part of their wider $100m fund announced.
The action taken in China (and the audience reaction) to close cinemas again could be a sign that the measures affecting cinemas may last longer than three to four months, as an immediate re-opening of life may well lead to a resurgence of the virus. This is an evolving situation and China is ahead of the rest of the world in tackling COVID-19 and can be used as a guide for the rest of the cinema world. The city of Wuhan is said to be relaxing its social isolation/lockdown measures slightly, and slowly.
The UK government also said over the weekend that social distancing measures may be in place for six months or so until the situation is over, with lockdown measures possibly in place until May/June, and further social distancing measures in place for several months after that.
We must note that the situation is unclear and the length of the impact on cinema is also unclear. Thinking and analysis on this subject will change according to events. What is known though is that cinemas are a non-essential sector and they rely on being social, and the severity of the impact on the sector will vary by country and the success in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic.
It is reasonable to postulate that a lockdown (ie closure of cinemas) may last for three months, but the social distancing measures after that may also impact cinemas for another three months (or shorter or longer), which means that if a country goes into lockdown now, cinemas may be working normally again by end of September/early October.
However, this is speculative and none of this is definitive.
