Actions by the government and central bank could reverse softening demand in 2023-2024, but the long term still will be plagued by vehicle production overcapacity, structural challenges related to the economy and ramifications from political tensions that could hurt both automotive export growth and foreign investment.
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China Market Tracker: Economic Headwinds Dampen Short-Term; Long-Term Outlook Stable
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Global Market Tracker: 2023 Trending Stronger; Long-Term Outlook Weaker
Report / 17 Jul 2023 / Haig Stoddard
Expectations interest rates will be higher than previously thought, greater impact related to the transition to battery-electric vehicles and some automakers determined to run with less inventory will further cap sales and production volumes over the next five years. The downward shift is not across the board, as there were increases in the outlook for growth in the Asia-Pacific region, though not enough to offset the reductions in Europe, North America and South America.
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The Analyst Team
Haig Stoddard
Follow AnalystPrincipal Analyst, Forecast & Markets
Haig has followed the auto industry for over three decades, starting as a reporter and editor for Wards Automotive Reports, then transitioning to an automotive market analyst. He analyzes market trends related to new-vehicle demand, production, and powertrain take-rates, and forecasts vehicle connectivity and automation levels
Haig focuses on tying together demand, vehicle production, and powertrain trends. He also has created and co-created several of the company’s current analytical outputs related to forecasts, plant capacities, product cycle plans, market segmentation, and future vehicle propulsion reports. Currently, he supports the Wards Intelligence database and produces regularly scheduled and custom subscription-based posts tied to North American production, sales analysis, forecasts, and general global market analysis. He also is working on projects to help expand the company’s coverage of future trends by creating vehicle-based forecasts related to factory-installed equipment, such as ADAS and mobility.
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