Global Battery-Electric-Vehicle Production Outlook Far from Tipping Point

As widely reported, global growth in battery-electric vehicles will start accelerating, but the propulsion type still is a long way from dominating the market. Wards Intelligence partner LMC Automotive expects mid-2030s before hitting the tipping point, which, though in line with most outlooks around the industry, realistically remains a big question mark. An indicator of when the tipping point occurs will be when the number of BEV vehicles tops 50% of global production. The adjoining graph shows the forecast percentage of light vehicles that will be BEVs, which is less than 25% in 2028. The second line is a subset of the top line and is a percentage of light-vehicle production that will be BEV vehicles off platforms designed specifically for BEVs. The widening of the gap through 2028 shows BEV production will continue to increase from platforms that include internal-combustion engine models. A sign of when the industry is nearing the tipping point will be when the gap starts to narrow – or BEV production starts to shift away from ICE-based platforms toward BEV-dedicated platforms…which still won’t be happening six years from now. However, the programs suppliers will be competing for six years from now, that won’t go into production until the middle 2030s, could be heavily weighted toward the mid-2030 bogey.