With inventory expected to continue month-to-month increases in October and November, a sales surge in the fourth quarter to an annualized rate well above 14 million units is doable. However, besides the potential negative impact from economic headwinds, it will depend on consumer confidence and reaction to further sticker shock coming in Q4 when most ’23 models come available, as most strong sellers are tapped for significant price increases from their ’22 versions.
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September Marks Two Straight Months of Double-Digit U.S. Inventory Gains
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September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales: SAAR Rises from August; Volume Up Year-Over-Year
Report / 03 Oct 2022 / Haig Stoddard
September’s results were disappointing considering the high level of pent-up demand and recent gains in inventory, and deliveries in the month – dented slightly by Hurricane Ian - were not strong enough to lift Q3’s total above Q2’s 13.3-million-unit annualized rate. However, September’s raw volume represented the first year-over-year increase in 14 months, and the month’s 13.5 million-unit SAAR was an improvement from August.
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The Analyst Team
Haig Stoddard
Follow AnalystPrincipal Analyst, Forecast & Markets
Haig has followed the auto industry for over three decades, starting as a reporter and editor for Wards Automotive Reports, then transitioning to an automotive market analyst. He analyzes market trends related to new-vehicle demand, production, and powertrain take-rates, and forecasts vehicle connectivity and automation levels
Haig focuses on tying together demand, vehicle production, and powertrain trends. He also has created and co-created several of the company’s current analytical outputs related to forecasts, plant capacities, product cycle plans, market segmentation, and future vehicle propulsion reports. Currently, he supports the Wards Intelligence database and produces regularly scheduled and custom subscription-based posts tied to North American production, sales analysis, forecasts, and general global market analysis. He also is working on projects to help expand the company’s coverage of future trends by creating vehicle-based forecasts related to factory-installed equipment, such as ADAS and mobility.
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