Based on the current outlooks for production and sales, inventory should break an 8-month downward slide and turn up in October. But that depends on how much, if at all, the flow of parts improves, meaning that the still high level of uncertainty in production for the U.S. market caused by the global supply-chain disruptions puts more downside risk to the direction inventory (and sales) take in October, and all of Q4.
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Supply-Chain Crisis Worsens and U.S. Light-Vehicle Inventory Falls Again in September
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U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Bottom-Out Again in September; Third-Quarter Records Weak 13.3-Million Annualized Rate
Report / 01 Oct 2021 / Haig Stoddard
In a market with enough underlying demand to support 12-month volume of 17 million units or more, a dearth of product availability caused September light-vehicle sales to barely top a 12 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, capping off the third quarter’s dismal 13.3 million annualized results, with expectations for little or no improvement in the fourth quarter.
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Haig Stoddard
Follow AnalystPrincipal Analyst, Forecast & Markets
Haig has followed the auto industry for over three decades, starting as a reporter and editor for Wards Automotive Reports, then transitioning to an automotive market analyst. He analyzes market trends related to new-vehicle demand, production, and powertrain take-rates, and forecasts vehicle connectivity and automation levels
Haig focuses on tying together demand, vehicle production, and powertrain trends. He also has created and co-created several of the company’s current analytical outputs related to forecasts, plant capacities, product cycle plans, market segmentation, and future vehicle propulsion reports. Currently, he supports the Wards Intelligence database and produces regularly scheduled and custom subscription-based posts tied to North American production, sales analysis, forecasts, and general global market analysis. He also is working on projects to help expand the company’s coverage of future trends by creating vehicle-based forecasts related to factory-installed equipment, such as ADAS and mobility.
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