Sales in May likely remain above the pre-tariff-surge baseline of a 16.0-million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate but could fall below 17 million after topping that mark in the prior two months. At the end of April there appeared some deceleration in tariff buying, plus inventory will continue to decline. In fact, May 31 inventory is projected to fall even further year-over-year from April’s drop, possibly by double digits if sales top a 16-million SAAR. With production for the U.S. market forecast to continue with declines, and possible tariff-related price hikes on the way, no rebound in inventory is expected over the remainder of the year.
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Tariff Sales Surge Drains U.S. Light-Vehicle Inventory in April; First Decline in Nearly 3 Years
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The Analyst Team
Haig Stoddard
Follow AnalystPrincipal Analyst, Forecast & Markets
Haig has followed the auto industry for over three decades, starting as a reporter and editor for Wards Automotive Reports, then transitioning to an automotive market analyst. He analyzes market trends related to new-vehicle demand, production, and powertrain take-rates, and forecasts vehicle connectivity and automation levels
Haig focuses on tying together demand, vehicle production, and powertrain trends. He also has created and co-created several of the company’s current analytical outputs related to forecasts, plant capacities, product cycle plans, market segmentation, and future vehicle propulsion reports. Currently, he supports the Wards Intelligence database and produces regularly scheduled and custom subscription-based posts tied to North American production, sales analysis, forecasts, and general global market analysis. He also is working on projects to help expand the company’s coverage of future trends by creating vehicle-based forecasts related to factory-installed equipment, such as ADAS and mobility.
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