Omdia: Africa smartphone market hits 24% growth in 3Q25, but 2026 outlook weakens

LONDON, November 27, 2025: Africa’s smartphone shipments surged 24% year on year to 22.8 million units in 3Q25, marking a return to double-digit growth after five quarters of slowdown according to Omdia’s latest research. The rebound outpaced the modest recovery in the global smartphone market, driven by stronger demand in key markets, currency stability, rising financing adoption, and improving retail activity.

Most markets across North and Sub-Saharan Africa posted double-digit smartphone growth in Q3, with Algeria the only outlier at 4%. Nigeria and Egypt each accounted for 14% of regional shipments, though their recoveries were driven by very different smartphone dynamics. Nigeria’s market surged 29% as vendors accelerated imports following Naira stabilizing and refreshed sub-US$150 portfolios, spurring upgrades in open-market retail. Egypt rose 19% on the back of stronger mid-range momentum, where brands pushed aggressively into the US$150–250 band through bundled offers and expanded into mass market channels.

South Africa led with 31% growth, boosted by prepaid acceleration in the value and mid-tier segments, supported by new launches and deeper retail promotions with retailers such as Pepkor and Ackerman’s benefiting from the removal of the 9% ad valorem tax earlier this year. Kenya grew 17% year on year, powered by rising device-financing penetration - now a major driver of smartphone sell-through - as retailers and operators scaled instalment-based plans that boosted demand for refreshed entry-level models.

“Africa delivered an exceptional dual surge in Q3 – sub-US$100 smartphones climbed 57%, their fastest rise in three quarters, while the above US$500 grew 52%,” said Manish Pravinkumar, Principal Analyst at Omdia. “The entry tier was supercharged by TRANSSION, which posted 25% year-on-year growth driven by resilient demand across Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa. This growth was reinforced by refreshed hero models such as TECNO’s Camon 40 and Spark 40, Infinix’s Hot 60 and Smart 10, and itel’s A90. Samsung dominated premium-tier expansion with the Galaxy S24 and S24 FE 5G demand from markets like South Africa, Senegal, Algeria. However, overall growth was modest 5%, as consumers gravitated toward value models A06, A07, and A16."

“Xiaomi is accelerating its long-term Africa strategy, preparing to enter more than 15+ new markets in the coming months while recently opening its first directly owned branded store in Morocco. It continues to build scale in the sub-US$150 segment, driven by strong volumes from the A5 4G and Redmi 15C 4G, which together made-up half of its shipments. OPPO strengthened its North African footprint with Egypt as a core hub and sustained mid-tier momentum, while HONOR maintained solid growth in South Africa, gaining share with value-oriented devices such as the HONOR 200 Lite.” 

“Africa’s smartphone market is expected to decline 6% in 2026 as supply-side pressures intensify,” said Pravinkumar. “Rising BOM costs, tight memory availability, elevated shipping and insurance fees, and persistent currency weakness will disproportionately affect the low-end 4G segment, where most African demand is concentrated. These pressures will push ASPs higher, especially in the US$80–150 band, creating renewed affordability challenges for consumers. To navigate this environment, vendors must strengthen financing partnerships, optimize channel inventory, and localize more aggressively to manage costs and sustain upgrade momentum despite the economic headwinds.”