Omdia: Smartphone satellite direct-to-device service revenue to approach $12 billion by 2030

LONDON, March 2, 2026: Omdia’s latest Smartphone Satellite Direct-to-Device (D2D) Forecast indicates that global satellite direct-to-device (D&D) services will reach 411 million monthly active users and generate $11.99 billion by 2030. This represents mean annual growth rates of 80.1% for users and 49.4% for revenue from 2026 to 2030.

Omdia estimates that cellular standard devices, meaning smartphones using 4G or 5G technologies to connect directly to satellites, will become the dominant model in the smartphone satellite D2D market, accounting for over 95% of global total MAUs by 2030. 

“In contrast to dual-mode phone solutions, which require a proprietary satellite communication link in the smartphone, cellular standard based solutions, such as Starlink D2C and AST SpaceMobile, can directly connect to devices compliant with 4G or 5G standards, particularly existing smartphones,” noted Guang Yang, Senior Principal Analyst, Service Provider Strategies and Mobile Infrastructure, at Omdia. “This approach can accelerate the adoption of satellite D2D services and enable satellite-based emergency communications for mass-market users during a disaster.” 

“The expansion of satellite constellations and coverage will allow more communication service providers to deliver ubiquitous connectivity by leveraging satellite D2D capabilities. D2D services are expected to become a key add-on feature to mobile service plans, offering customers an insurance-like option to stay connected when outside terrestrial network coverage,” said Dario Talmesio, Research Director, Service Provider Strategy & Regulation, at Omdia.

“In the longer term, satellite-based mobile broadband will give telecom operators new flexibility to reassess the topology of their infrastructure in low-density and rural areas. It will also provide telecom regulators and policy makers additional tools to support and potentially expand the remit of universal service obligations,” added Dario Talmesio, Research Director, Service Provider Strategy & Regulation, at Omdia. 

Looking ahead, 6G is set to become the first mobile communications system to integrate non-terrestrial network (NTN) technologies natively, with the first release of 6G standards expected by 2029. As a result, satellite D2D services are expected to receive a further boost in the 2030s as integration between terrestrial and non-terrestrial networks deepen.