Apple iPad panel purchasing plan and forecast

Affected by inventory burden and sluggish end-market demand, Apple’s iPad panel purchasing volume is estimated to drop by 36% year-on-year (YoY) in 2023 to 45.5 million units. Based on Apple’s forecast purchasing volume of 45.5 million units for 2023, this marks its lowest yearly shipment since 2020. Similar shipping levels were observed in 2018 and 2019. The demand for both the 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad Pro models in 2023 is expected to experience a big decline compared with previous years because high-priced and high-end products are more difficult to sell during a global economic recession. The iPad Pro 12.9-inch panel supply volume may decrease more than 60% YoY for both Sharp and LG Display. Sharp’s iPad Pro 11-inch panel supply volume may also drop by 70% YoY. These are the main reasons behind Apple’s total iPad panel shipment decrease of 36% YoY in 2023.

According to Omdia’s Tablet and Notebook Display & OEM Market Tracker – 2Q23 Database, Apple’s tablet panel shipments dropped by 28% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in 2Q23, marking its lowest quarterly shipment since 2Q20. This reflects the poor tablet sales situation of 2023, in which the market size is downsizing and returning to how it was three years ago. In 2Q23, Apple’s panel purchasing volume for the 10.9-inch iPad Air and iPad models increased against the market recession. Despite the record-low panel purchasing volumes in 1Q23, 10.9-inch iPad shipments increased by 122% QoQ, with LG Display being the sole panel supplier. Another mainstream model, the iPad 10.9-inch, also increased by 14% QoQ in 2Q23 from both BOE and LG Display. Apple’s tablet product line of iPad Air and iPad models are more resistant to the market recession than iPad Pro models in 2023 owing to the midrange product position with high price and performance benefits during the ongoing poor demand period. Apple’s total iPad Pro 11-inch shipment dropped by 80% QoQ in 2Q23, the largest quarterly decline among all iPad models. Sharp’s (an 11-inch panel supplier) supply volume was temporarily reduced in 2Q23. However, Sharp’s 11-inch supply volume to Apple was postponed from 2Q23 to 3Q23. Therefore, we forecast the 11-inch demand to increase again for Sharp in 2H23. Another 11-inch panel supplier, LG Display, had its supply quantity drop significantly by 50% QoQ in 2Q23.

Looking at the tablet panel demand in 2H23, Apple may slightly increase its total iPad panel purchasing volume in 3Q23 at an 8% QoQ growth rate for traditional peak sales season preparation before the end of the year. A marginal increase in shipments is forecast for each iPad model, except for the 10.2-inch panel, in 2H23 compared with 1H23. After the next-generation 10.9-inch iPad is launched, demand may gradually migrate from 10.2-inch iPads to 10.9-inch iPads. Without any indication from the end market that demand will recover in 2H23, Apple is also conservatively giving a decreasing panel purchasing plan for 4Q23, as shown in Table 1. Controlling inventory may be the priority of all IT brands at the moment rather than implementing the pre-stocking strategy. 

Table 1: Apple’s iPad panel purchasing plan for 2023 (thousands of units)

Sharp’s iPad panel supply share decreases continuously

Especially affected by the weak tablet demand for high-end models, Apple’s iPad panel supplier share has changed significantly over the recent year. Sharp has been more severely affected by the supply share decrease compared with other Apple iPad panel suppliers, such as BOE and LG Display. As the leader in oxide technology, Sharp dominated the iPad Pro models with a more than 30% share in the years up to 2021. From 2022 onward, the demand for mainstream iPads and iPad Air increased more than that for the iPad Pro. BOE’s and LG Display’s iPad panel supplier shares grew continuously. BOE’s iPad panel supply share rose from below 30% in 2021 to 42% in 2022, jumping to the top of the iPad panel supplier ranking for the first time. In 2023, Apple’s iPad panel supplier share estimates are 46% for BOE and 41% for LG Display, as shown in Figure 1. The iPad and iPad Air panel supply share for both BOE and LG Display keep increasing. In contrast, Sharp is heavily affected, with a supply share of only 13% in 2023. This huge decline was due to the weak iPad Pro demand.   

Source: Omdia

Apple’s new OLED iPad in 2024

After many years of R&D, Apple may finally launch a new iPad OLED panel in 2024. The planned OLED tablet panel size will be 11 and 12.9 inches and will be supplied by LG Display and Samsung Display. Based on the current survey, Apple is targeting a total of 10 million units of OLED iPad panels for 2024. The forecast for 2024 indicates that LG Display may supply 6 million units for both the 11-inch and 12.9-inch models, while Samsung Display may provide 4 million units for the 11-inch model only. The OLED iPad will be adopted in the iPad Pro product lineup as the first OLED model for Apple IT products. The demand for the current 12.9-inch iPad Pro with Mini LED backlight will be gradually replaced with OLED technology from 2024 onward.   

Furthermore, Apple is continuously discussing the possibility of widely adopting OLED technology for the iPad mini and iPad Air lineup as the next phase of its strategy from 2026 onward. Apple may review the market feedback and sales results of the OLED iPad Pro to adjust its OLED iPad mini and iPad Air launch schedule. It also seeks more display supply chain partners to join its OLED iPad panel supplier list. Apple will be more focused on OLED displays for IT panels from 2024 onward, following the OLED display transition trend that mobile phones went through.   

To read more insights and analysis covering market trends and industry forecasts prepared by Omdia’s Display practice, click here.