The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory.
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September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact
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Initial U.S. Strike-Related Shutdowns Won’t Necessarily Boost Demand at Other Automakers
Report / 16 Sep 2023 / Haig Stoddard
The eight vehicles built at the three sites closed Sept. 15 from the UAW-called strikes compete in segments dominated by Ford, GM and Stellantis, leaving it unlikely that lost sales of those models could lead to big gains at other automakers. In fact, in some cases there is a good chance lost sales at one company are filled by one of the other two. The strike-hit triumvirate are even more dominant in the fullsize pickup and SUV segments, meaning it will take lengthy shutdowns at plants building CUVs and cars before non-UAW-built vehicles get real volume benefits from declining inventory at Ford, GM or Stellantis.
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UAW Strikes Three Sites; Production Losses Estimated at Nearly 3,000 Per Day
Report / 15 Sep 2023 / Haig Stoddard
The UAW has stated it is not opposed to stopping work at all plants it represents in the U.S. In that extreme scenario, estimated U.S. productions losses in September could average up to 19,000 units per day. If Unifor in Canada were to do the same, estimated daily losses there would be 2,800 units.
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The Analyst Team
Haig Stoddard
Follow AnalystPrincipal Analyst, Forecast & Markets
Haig has followed the auto industry for over three decades, starting as a reporter and editor for Wards Automotive Reports, then transitioning to an automotive market analyst. He analyzes market trends related to new-vehicle demand, production, and powertrain take-rates, and forecasts vehicle connectivity and automation levels
Haig focuses on tying together demand, vehicle production, and powertrain trends. He also has created and co-created several of the company’s current analytical outputs related to forecasts, plant capacities, product cycle plans, market segmentation, and future vehicle propulsion reports. Currently, he supports the Wards Intelligence database and produces regularly scheduled and custom subscription-based posts tied to North American production, sales analysis, forecasts, and general global market analysis. He also is working on projects to help expand the company’s coverage of future trends by creating vehicle-based forecasts related to factory-installed equipment, such as ADAS and mobility.
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