US light vehicle sales are forecast to decline 3.6% year-over-year in October, only the second downturn this year. However, downturns are forecast to continue due to lean inventory, a rising mix of higher priced vehicles, and the end of the EV credit.
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Forecast Decline in October US Light Vehicle Sales Likely to Continue in November, December
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US Light Vehicle Sales and Inventory Forecast – October 2025
Data / 24 Oct 2025 / Haig Stoddard
US light vehicle sales and inventory forecast by company; by vehicle type and source for October 2025. Includes SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rates) and days’ supply projections.
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The Analyst Team
Haig Stoddard
Follow AnalystPrincipal Analyst, Forecast & Markets
Haig has followed the auto industry for over three decades, starting as a reporter and editor for Wards Automotive Reports, then transitioning to an automotive market analyst. He analyzes market trends related to new-vehicle demand, production, and powertrain take-rates, and forecasts vehicle connectivity and automation levels
Haig focuses on tying together demand, vehicle production, and powertrain trends. He also has created and co-created several of the company’s current analytical outputs related to forecasts, plant capacities, product cycle plans, market segmentation, and future vehicle propulsion reports. Currently, he supports the Wards Intelligence database and produces regularly scheduled and custom subscription-based posts tied to North American production, sales analysis, forecasts, and general global market analysis. He also is working on projects to help expand the company’s coverage of future trends by creating vehicle-based forecasts related to factory-installed equipment, such as ADAS and mobility.
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