Omdia: Global notebook PC shipments will resume growth in 2023 if Russia-Ukraine War concludes in 2022

LONDON, 11 July, 2022 – New research from Omdia’s Mobile PC Market Tracker has found that, after 15.5% year on year (Y/Y) decline in 2022, notebook PC shipments will return to positive growth of 1.0% in 2023 if the Russia-Ukraine war can be successfully concluded by end of 2022. 

Jeff Lin, Senior Principal Analyst for Omdia’s Notebook PC / Tablet practice said: “Our analysis shows the decline in 2022 has been impacted by the rapidly fluctuating value of the US dollar which affects the predictability of transactions in supply chains and end-consumer side; the Russia-Ukraine war which has affected future European government and consumers spending and the uncertain Chinese government’s epidemic policy that has affected the stability of electronic components and products supply chain.”

Virtual Reality/Mixed Reality (VR/MR) is set to become the driving force for future notebook growth particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) market. As the life cycle of EV development is reduced, the EV developers’ market will increase. The continuous improvement of semiconductor manufacturing processes in high-end notebook PCs will see them gradually replacing desktop PCs and EV developers directly using laptops with VR/MR. If the trend is as predicted, Omdia expects that Apple will be the biggest winner in this market due to its solid content creator base.

After the US Federal Reserve’s efforts to reduce the balance sheet in 2022, the new $1,2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is intended to help stimulate the US economy alongside its ambitions to become a green energy country. However, the war in Europe and China’s zero-COVID policy has impacted this ambition by causing delays in the global supply chain of electronic components and products. The uncertainty of geopolitical risks has caused investment funds to withdraw from the Asia Pacific region, further slowing the supply chain moving out from China to Southeast Asia.

Lin concludes: “The industry must take note of these critical market issues as the slowdown in the US’ green energy transformation plan could negatively impact demand for EVs and subsequent future growth momentum for notebook PCs and notebook PC with VR/MR by EV developers.”

Figure: Global notebook PC and YoY change (2021 – 2027)