Omdia forecasts recorded-music retail sales will top $50bn in 2026

Omdia forecasts recorded-music retail sales will top $50bn in 2026

• Recorded-music retail sales will exceed $40bn in 2022 and top $50bn in 2026.
• Although a nominal record, when adjusted for inflation, the 2026 total remains 26% below the 1999 high.
• Future growth will be driven by subscriptions and streaming with access set to account for 80% of the 2026 retail total
• France will drop out of the top five this year when it is overtaken by China.
• The world’s most populous country will overtake Germany in 2026.

LONDON, 9 May, 2022 – The global retail value of recorded-music sales will register a record year in 2022 with sales set to rise 9.8%, to $41.4bn from $37.7bn in 2021, according to new figures published by Omdia. Further growth is forecast over the next few years with the total ending 2026 at $50bn. The previous record was set in 1999 when sales topped $39bn. It is worth noting that breaking the 22-year-old high will be on a nominal basis. Allowing for inflation means total sales in 1999 would be worth around $63bn in 2021. Omdia’s figures are made up of consumer spending on physical and digital formats and services plus trade revenue from performance rights and synchronization.

Subscriptions and advertising will be the big growth providers. Spending on subscriptions will jump 17% this year, to $25bn. By 2026, spending will total $33.6bn and account for 67.1% of global revenue. Income from digital music advertising will overtake spending on physical formats in 2024 and rise to $6.8bn in 2026.

Global, recorded-music retail sales by individual source, 2021–26

Source: Omdia

“The continued shift from ownership of recorded-music to access means global retail sales will break annual records for the next few years and beyond. Probably most pleasing for music companies is that emerging markets are starting to live up to their billing. Markets previously lost to piracy are really starting to shine,” commented Simon Dyson, Omdia’s Senior Principal Analyst, Music and Digital Audio.

Omdia expects France to drop out of the top five this year when it is overtaken by China. Moreover, China is set to surpass Germany in 2026. Sales in the world’s most populous country are forecast to more than double, from $1.4bn in 2021 to $3.2bn in 2026. China’s share of global recorded-music revenue will grow over the same five years, to 6.5% from 3.7%. However, it is worth noting that although the country will become a $2bn+ market in 2023, per capita revenue will still be low, at just $1.51.